Can AI replace gut feel in planning?
It can’t replace judgment - but it can replace blind guessing.

Companies often start planning by opening last year’s budget and assuming the road hasn’t changed. Gut feel fills the gaps. AI helps replace gut feel and blind guessing with signals, patterns, and what actually shifted.

Planning without clarity is like heading out with a map you can’t read - or worse, no map at all. AI gives you a clearer map and the glasses to read it.

💡Many companies start planning on instinct - AI replaces instinct with real information.

📉The problem AI actually solves

Planning doesn’t fall apart because spreadsheets are complicated.
It falls apart because teams often skip the clarity stage and jump straight into numbers.

Typical weak spots:

• starting from last year’s plan instead of what changed

• depending on selective memory

• unclear expectations about revenue or costs

• no shared picture of capacity

• outdated assumptions about customers

• not understanding what changed in the market or behaviour

AI brings clarity before the numbers move.

🔎What changed since last quarter? What changed since last year? How do I update my assumptions?

These questions shape the early part of planning.

AI helps answer them quickly:

• summaries of customer conversations

• themes from CRM notes

• patterns in service tickets

• shifts in buying language

• early signals in your sector

• risks hidden in last year’s plan

Teams often skip this stage. AI makes it easy to surface.

🗺️AI helps you see more than assumptions

Assumptions matter, but the whole picture matters more.

AI strengthens the full route:

• new signals from customers and the market

• a clearer view of what changed

• inconsistencies between goals, capacity, and timing

• early warnings about where the plan might fail

• sharper priorities before time or money is allocated

AI improves the whole journey. It updates the map, cleans the glasses, and shows the path before you take the first step.

🧭How to update assumptions with AI

1. Gather your inputs
Customer emails, CRM notes, performance reviews, last year’s plan, pipeline.

2. Summarise the raw information
Ask AI to extract trends, patterns, pain points, and changes.

3. Ask the core question
“What changed?”
Then add:
What changed since last quarter? What changed since last year?

💬 Planning works best when it starts with what changed - not what you hope will happen.

4. List assumptions clearly
Revenue drivers, cost pressures, capacity limits, customer behaviour shifts, timing risks.

5. Test those assumptions
Ask AI:

• What breaks if this is wrong?

• Which month becomes tight?

• Which project becomes unrealistic?

6. Check for contradictions
AI can spot when goals, capacity, and budgets don’t line up.

7. Finalise assumptions
Then open the spreadsheet.

8. Test the plan once it’s drafted
Ask AI where the plan contradicts itself and which assumptions carry the most risk.

🌐How to use AI to scan external signals

Use the same pattern each time:

1. Customer signals
Summaries of complaints, requests, delays, objections.

2. Market signals
Changes in pricing, competitor moves, launches, messaging shifts.

3. Internal signals
Project delays, service issues, resourcing gaps.

4. Risk signals
Ask AI which patterns could cause demand drops, slow cash, or capacity strain.

5. Direction signals
Ask: “Which of these changes matter most for the year ahead?”

For newer planning techniques that fit into this approach, see New Approaches to Planning (upcoming).

📊How to use AI to test simple scenarios

Examples:

• revenue drops 10%

• costs rise 5%

• hiring is delayed

• supplier lead times increase

• demand spikes early

A scenario is simply a structured version of a question that matters.

⭐Explore the Business Direction Flywheel as an approach to planning:

⚡Quick-Gain Summary

Typical gain: clarity in under an hour
Impact: sharper priorities, fewer surprises, better direction

☑️Quick-Gain Checklist

☑ Summarise 5-10 customer trends
☑ Extract patterns and pain points
☑ Ask “What changed?”
☑ List assumptions clearly
☑ Test 2-3 critical assumptions
☑ Ask “What breaks if this is wrong?”
☑ Rewrite unclear assumptions
☑ Spot inconsistencies in your draft plan
☑ Identify risky assumptions
☑ Review the plan’s sensitivity after assumptions are set
☑ Check whether priorities align with what changed

✏️Clarity removes friction long before planning begins.

🔧Example Tools You Can Use

📊The tools matter less than the clarity they produce.

🚀Start-Here Guide

🟦 Level 1 - If you only do one thing
Ask AI:
“Given last year’s plan and this year’s feedback, what changed - and what risks follow?”

🟧 Level 2 - If you want one more step
Run cautious and optimistic scenarios.

⭐ Full Approach - If you want the complete process

1. Gather inputs

2. Summarise key changes

3. Ask “What changed?”

4. List assumptions

5. Test them

6. Check contradictions

7. Finalise assumptions

8. Build the plan

9. Test the plan

🔗Where to go next

Approach to Budgeting for Small Businesses (clarity before numbers): https://www.advancementquest.com/blog/approach-to-budgeting 

Budget as a Story (how choices shape the year): https://www.advancementquest.com/blog/budget-as-a-story 

Build a Budget You Can Steer By (upcoming)

Templates That Make SME Planning Easier (upcoming)

📥Try the Business Health Check

It shows where to focus and which assumptions are most likely to break your plan. https://www.businesshealthcheck.co.uk