Trying to make the right decision - and not making one at all

A case study of life and death.

In 2007:

• Nokia held ~50% of the global smartphone market
• Apple had 0%

Market value reflected it.

Nokia was worth roughly ~$130–150B and was one of the most valuable companies in Europe.
Apple was worth roughly ~$70–80B.

Then the market shifted to touchscreens, software-first devices, and app ecosystems.

Both saw it coming.

Case A - Nokia

Nokia didn’t ignore the shift. It worked across multiple directions at once, keeping options open while trying to refine the right path.

• improving Symbian OS
• developing MeeGo
• experimenting with touchscreen hybrids

Progress continued across all paths — more work, more refinement, more iteration - without locking into one direction early.

Case B - Apple

Apple moved differently. It chose a direction and launched.

The first iPhone had visible limitations:

• no App Store
• slow 2G internet
• no copy & paste

It was clearly below the level of completeness Nokia was working towards in its systems and devices.

The decision was made anyway.

What followed

• Apple scaled rapidly, building the ecosystem as it went
• Nokia’s position weakened, and its market share collapsed

By 2013, Nokia had sold its mobile division to Microsoft after a failed turnaround, as loss of position made continuation unviable.

Apple went on to become the most valuable company in the world, reaching ~$2T+ market value.

There was no difference in awareness, capability, talent, resources, or exposure to the market shift.

But when and how the decision was made was dramatically different.

⚡A slightly worse decision made now often beats a perfect one you never commit to.

🚀 What to do next

If this feels familiar, start here:

👉 Run the Second Look Decision Diagnostic to see what’s missing before you decide
👉See why this happens

 👉 📖 Read more on Second Look blog

You can continue with making the decision afterwwards.